Two wallets, one call. Public candles decide.

A duel is a bet between two wallets on where a Solana token's market cap goes. The creator writes the call and takes YES. Anyone can take the other side, NO. The winner gets both stakes, minus 0.5% of what they won.

Duel types

• Hits: the market cap touches a level above the current one at any moment of the window.
• Dips to: the market cap touches a level below the current one at any moment of the window.
• Above at end, below at end: where the market cap is when the window closes.
• Closer to: when the window closes, is the market cap closer to level A or to level B? That is the same as being on A's side of the midpoint between them. An exact tie refunds both sides.

Any token with at least $10K market cap can be used: pump.fun bonding-curve coins, coins that migrated to PumpSwap or Raydium, and other Solana tokens listed on DexScreener or GeckoTerminal. Windows: 5m, 10m, 15m, 30m, 1h, 2h, 4h, 12h, 24h. Stakes: 0.01–100 SOL.

How the odds are set

The odds come from how far the level is from the current market cap, measured against how much the token usually moves. Prediction Duel reads the token's last two hours of 1-minute candles and estimates its volatility σ per √minute. The log of the market cap is treated as a random walk:

• Above or below at end: P = N(ln(cap / level) / (σ√T))
• Hits or dips to: P = 2 · (1 − N(|ln(level / cap)| / (σ√T)))

P is the chance of YES, kept between 4% and 96%. The creator's stake S is fixed. To keep the bet fair, the taker stakes S · (1 − P) / P. Whoever wins, wins exactly the other side's stake: the taker can win the creator's S and no more, the creator can win the taker's stake. A long-shot call means a small taker stake; a near-certain call means a big one.

The taker's stake is re-priced from the live market cap at the moment they take the duel, then held for 90 seconds while they sign. Before that, the amount on the cards is an estimate.

Lifecycle

• The creator deposits their stake. The duel is open until someone takes it or the offer runs out.
• The creator can cancel an open duel at any time. Offers nobody takes are refunded automatically.
• The window starts the moment someone takes the duel and ends on a full minute. Taken at 14:03:27, a 10-minute duel runs 14:03:27–14:14:00. The odds are priced for that extra half minute on average.
• Two minutes after the window closes, the duel is settled and the winner is paid automatically. A touch duel is settled early, as soon as the level is touched.

How a duel is settled

Settlement uses public 1-minute candles from GeckoTerminal for the token's main pools: the pool at creation, the PumpSwap pool it migrated to if it graduated from pump.fun during the duel, and other large pools. The market cap is the token price times its supply, fixed when the duel was created.

• Touch duels count every wick: the high or low of each full candle inside the window, plus the live price snapshots Prediction Duel records every few seconds (these also cover the partial first minute). A snapshot counts when a second one at least 5 seconds apart confirms it.
• End-of-window duels use the last trade before the window closes.
• If no price data can be read within an hour of the close, the duel is voided and both stakes are refunded.

Each duel page shows the data used: highest, lowest and final market cap, the pools, and every transaction.

Escrow and fees

There is no smart contract. Stakes are held in one escrow wallet operated by Prediction Duel, and payouts and refunds are sent from it automatically. Every deposit and payout is an ordinary SOL transfer on Solana with a memo like clash:<duel id>:c, so anyone can check them.

• Fee: 0.5% of the winnings, which is the losing side's stake. Refunds pay no fee.
• The escrow holds no money of its own. Each transfer out of it pays its Solana network fee, 0.000007 SOL, out of the amount sent.
• Deposits that can't be used (late, short, from the wrong wallet, or for a duel that was already taken) are sent back to the wallet that sent them. Amounts under 0.001 SOL are not refunded, because the network fee would eat most of them.

Risks

• The escrow is custodial: you trust Prediction Duel to pay out as these rules describe.
• Memecoin prices can be pushed by large buys or sells, including by someone in the duel. Prefer tokens with real liquidity.
• If the data providers are down, settlement waits, and voids after an hour. Odds come from a model, not a promise.